Much like the ever-changing fixture, the AFL premiership race is shrouded in uncertainty

Much like the uncertain nature of the fixture, the AFL’s premiership race is shrouded in uncertainty.

It is about as clear as the mud in the middle of the old Moorabbin Oval after the groundsman had left the sprinklers on.

Ask five different expert commentators which two teams will line up in this year’s grand final and you would likely get five different answers.

Round 16 only further confirmed that 2021 is wide open, with a host of teams in the mix to swoop on the silverware.

As injured Geelong star Mitch Duncan told Grandstand AFL on ABC Sport, winter is important for embedding your roots, banking wins and building a position to launch.

But spring is the season to fully blossom.

“That’s exciting I suppose, it gives everyone a chance in a way but you’ve got to be able to play your best footy at the end of the year and every team’s trying to do that,” Duncan said.

Despite its concerning form and mounting injury list, most refused to discount Richmond — they had proven themselves before. But the Tigers are now out of the top eight at this point in the season for the first time since 2016, when the club finished 13th and was in crisis.

The 2016 season offers an interesting premiership precedent Damien Hardwick’s side can draw upon. If their injured stars recover and they scrape into the finals, it is feasible the Tigers could get on a Western Bulldogs-like run, produce a perfect month of football and still win the flag.

It is a hard ask, but not implausible.

Demons ‘lost their flow’

Just as Richmond over recent years established a mass bank of faith, Melbourne developed a reputation as a club that could not be trusted. It was hard to shake off even after the Demons produced their best start to a season since 1956.

Nine consecutive wins shifted public sentiment, while victories over Geelong, Richmond, the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane swayed even the most cynical.

But the Dees have now dropped three of their past six matches, all of them to clubs outside of the top eight when they met. The nine-point loss to the Giants at the MCG on Saturday followed a one-point loss to Adelaide in round 10 and a 17-point defeat to Collingwood in round 13.

Essendon premiership player Adam Ramanauskas has noticed a greater level of conservatism in Melbourne’s approach to ball movement.

“I think they’ve lost their flow in the game, their dare in their game, I think they’re trying to play a perfect game of football at the moment,” Ramanauskas said on Grandstand AFL.

Port Adelaide easily accounted for Hawthorn on Saturday night, a magnificent occasion celebrating revered Hawk Shaun Burgoyne’s 400-match milestone.

But while the Power edged Richmond in round four, they have not consistently produced against this season’s best sides. Thursday night’s clash with Melbourne in Adelaide presents the perfect chance to demonstrate their premiership capabilities.

Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs look unbeatable when they are firing. But if opposition teams can prevent the game from being played on their terms, they have proven gettable.

Gosh, it is exhilarating when they are on, though.

Doubt over Eagles’ flag credentials

At full strength, West Coast appears one of the more complete sides on paper but it has been cruelled by injury, with star players too frequently unavailable.

The effort against the Swans, however, was inexcusable.

Aside from Liam Ryan and Andrew Gaff, the Eagles had close to their best 22 available for Sunday’s clash on neutral territory at Geelong’s Kardinia Park — a venue where the Cats humiliated them by 97 points in round six.

Again, West Coast played without sufficient spirit to be taken seriously. With a game style reliant on taking marks and controlling the speed of the game, the Eagles lack the necessary grunt and physical presence to stand up under the heat of finals pressure. That is if they even get there.

Sydney has been the season’s surprise packet. The Swans’ ruthless and efficient display has them entrenched in the top eight with a favourable run of matches to end the home-and-away rounds.

The Swans’ emerging crop of youngsters — including Sam Wicks, Errol Gulden, Ollie Florent and Justin McInerney — has added spark and scoring power, beautifully complementing the side’s established core.

Sydney’s list of scalps this season also includes Brisbane, Richmond and Geelong — impressive.

On the topic of Geelong, the Cats looked listless in the first quarter of Friday night’s clash against a ballistic Essendon.

The response — eight goals to one in the second quarter — was that of a mature and powerful side. They are a definite premiership threat, but can the perennial finalist take the next step?

Are they too old and too slow? Do they move the ball too cautiously?

Will Duncan make it back in time for the finals? What about Jeremy Cameron’s latest hamstring setback?

So many questions in an intriguing football season where there is much to be fully revealed.